A stark economic report by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), titled “Turning Macroeconomic Stability into Sustainable Growth,” has projected that 141 million Nigerians - approximately 62% of the population - will be living in poverty by 2026. The report warns that despite the government’s recent efforts to stabilize the macroeconomy, weak real income growth and “stubbornly high” living costs are pushing more households below the poverty line. PwC notes that for low-income families, food now accounts for up to 70%of total consumption, making them extremely vulnerable to price shocks.

The projection serves as a “blaring alarm bell” for the Tinubu administration as it enters the 2027 electioneering season. While the government has pointed to moderating headline inflation and a stable exchange rate as signs of progress, PwC argues that the underlying cost structure remains a major barrier. Factors such as high energy prices, logistics expenses, and the removal of the fuel subsidy in 2023 have created an affordability gap that stagnant wages cannot bridge. The report suggests that any marginal improvement in inflation will not be felt by the 14 million people who fell into poverty in just the last year.

International bodies like the World Bank have echoed these grim statistics, projecting that poverty will peak at 62% in 2026 before seeing a negligible 1% drop in 2027. The bank’s “Nigeria Development Update” highlights that the absolute number of poor Nigerians has jumped from 81 million in 2019 to nearly 140 million today. Analysts warn that such pervasive deprivation is not just a humanitarian crisis but a threat to national security, as “poverty has become a political tool” used for vote-buying and manipulation during election cycles.

The PwC report concludes that without “decisive, people-centred action,” Nigeria risks a social breakdown. It calls for an aggressive focus on job creation, agricultural productivity, and the strengthening of social safety nets to protect the most vulnerable.

Credit: Atlantic Digest